Hi Doug,

Thanks for your message. I will post an article on Monday that goes through an example.

It's a toy example - modelling the schedule risk of me turning up to work on time (in the good old days where we went to work).

I've found when teaching this stuff, it's good - at least to start - to use examples one step removed from actual applications as no one has any emotional attachment to the outcome of the analysis. Hence the cycling to work case.

Don't hesitate to get in touch with questions and comments after the cycling example. More than happy to chat a couple of cases through if that helps structure an approach to this kind of analysis.