Disease dynamics distilled

Early stages

  • The number of people with whom, on average, someone infected comes into contact
  • The probability that someone infected infects someone new if they come into contact
  • The rate at which infected people recover or die

Later stages

  • The infection rate there was at the start multiplied by the proportion of the population still susceptible
  • Minus the removal rate

Implications

Suppression

Mitigation

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Mathematical modelling for business and the business of mathematical modelling. See stochastic.dk/articles for a categorized list of all my articles on medium.

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Graeme Keith

Graeme Keith

Mathematical modelling for business and the business of mathematical modelling. See stochastic.dk/articles for a categorized list of all my articles on medium.

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