Apocalypse averted

Sloughing off the parachute of lockdown

Mitigation’s misguided arithmetic

Adam Kucharski’s demonstration at the BMJ conference on COVID unknowns of the indistinguishability of COVID curves according to how they are suppressed

Cometh the hour, cometh the math

  • If on average, infected people infect more than one other person before they’re no longer infectious (because they isolate, wind up in hospital or die) then the number of infected people will — at least to start — grow exponentially. (Eventually, you start running out of people to infect, but not before things get really ugly.)
  • If, on the other hand, they do not, then the contagion dies out

Exponential growth isn’t just very fast growth

How seriously should we take it given the shortcomings of the model?

Models for the moment

  • Be open about the uncertainty and the current resolution of the model
  • Discuss the alternatives relative to that uncertainty
  • Present what you are doing to refine the decision in the future.

Making the most of the model of the moment

Decisions under uncertainty with necessarily inadequate models and inevitably insufficient data. Aka Politics, for short.

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Mathematical modelling for business and the business of mathematical modelling. See stochastic.dk/articles for a categorized list of all my articles on medium.

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Graeme Keith

Graeme Keith

Mathematical modelling for business and the business of mathematical modelling. See stochastic.dk/articles for a categorized list of all my articles on medium.

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