The PERT distribution is a beta distribution, stretched out, ripped up and dumped down far from home. Poor thing. No actual beta distributions were harmed in preparing this article. All drawings by the author.

The trouble that lurks in the parameterization and the properties of the PERT distribution


Black Swans call for a radical reappraisal of the way we model, but we are just as deluded about their significance as we are about our ability to explain and predict them.



Archimedes (but maybe Euclid) democratizing mathematics. Detail from Raphael’s The School of Athens, 1509–1511, fresco at the Raphael Rooms, Apostolic Palace, Vatican City. Wikimedia Commons.

The demystification of mathematical modelling is the first step to raising the level of mathematical literacy in public debate


How high functioning in other intellectual disciplines can be an obstacle to learning mathematics


Photo by Nik Albert on Unsplash

A layman’s look at the foundations of Frequentism and Bayesianism and how you can have the best of both.


Photo by Tom Pumford on Unsplash

It’s not because you’re stupid or weren’t concentrating in school


Only one of them is actually a book on leadership

Photo by j zamora on Unsplash
  1. On Grand Strategy by John Lewis Gaddis
  2. War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy
  3. The Open Society and its Enemies by Karl Popper
  4. Talleyrand by Duff Cooper
  5. Middlemarch by George Eliot


Author: Farcaster at English Wikipedia (Wikimedia Commons)

The prevailing paradigm of data analytics is rooted in the philosophy of Logical Positivism. Institutions who do not primarily deal with data need a more flexible approach.

  • Data are the only natural point of departure for all analysis
  • We ensure objectivity in our models by…


Graeme Keith

Mathematical modelling for business and the business of mathematical modelling. See stochastic.dk/articles for a categorized list of all my articles on medium.

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